Overreaction? Corona virus diary 3

This morning I noticed that the Funeral march music has dissapeard from my head. I tried to sing it on purpouse but it didn't stick. It was there from the middle of January till last week of March - for about 2.5 months. 
Now it seems to be gone. I hope it is good sign.


I will take it with caution and watch what will happen. Usually there is a lag time of 2-4 weeks. Maybe most of us will be back to work in 2-4 weeks.  Even if it doesn't look like it right now. 

I feel the similarity between this Corona virus pandemic and that one time few years ago when the biggest snow storm of the century was predicetd for Atlanta region. The airport was closed based on predictions. But no snow came. 
Definitely there are people dying due to the new virus but to put the entire planet into an economic coma may be a very big overreaction. 

The more we will be getting out of this pandemic, the more voices will be sounding calling is overreaction. 

Sometime later another virus will come. I hope that people in change will not forget the economic results of the current overreaction and will concider the measures more carefully. 


   

Why Corona virus makes people poor? Corona virus diary 2

After I returned form work yersterday my girl asked me: "Why does virus make people poor?"

I don't know if my constant background fear of being poor  tranfered to her. Two weeks ago when the China's deaths were rapidly increaseing, I said that we will not buy any toys untill the virus has passed. For the time being we will only buy food and the most nesessary things. I was surprized how easy she aggreed to that. 

I am watching how gradually the news are changing from "No we wan't have a ressesion" to "This will be a very deep ressession" to "This will be a depression". 

Some are still hoping for a V-shaped marked recovery. But it probably wil be mor of an L-shape.

The closings of restaurants started the snow ball. Almost everything is closing. Even the health care businesses are not safe. With the canceling of the elective surgeries, the medical practices lost a lot of business. They are also laying off people. 
This can't just suddenly all come back. There will not be a sudden pick up of all consumer spending to the previous levels. Most people will be shocked and scared for a long time and the spending will decrease for a while. 

After I explained those reasons to my girl, she thought a bit and said: "There is a boy in school, Vinnie, he winks at me. What does it mean?" I can only hope that we will swich back as fast as she can. 
I said: "The boy likes you but doesn't not know what to say". Then she said: "Akul never winks at me, does it mean he does not like me? But we play together a lot." I said: "Akul likes you but he knows what so say".  
Soon there will be more questions of this sort coming. I feel like starting a new Q&A section, something like "What girls want to know".  

Why do we live? Corona virus diary 1

Yesterday my 9 years old girl asked me: "Why do we live?" I said that I don't know and that if she finds it out, she should let me know.

She is worried about the Coronavirus even though I told her that children are not at risk. She is worried that her mom and dad can die. And because the stores don't have eggs.

Her worry is real because she sees things happening which never happened before. The schools are closed. The store shelves are empty. The numbers of dead people are increasing rapidly on worldometer.

We went  to Walmart  to get eggs and there were no eggs. With surprise and fear in her eyes she asked what is she going to eat? How can we survive without eggs?
She likes eggs a lot and eats them every day.  Recently she learned to make scrambled eggs all by herself and she is very proud.

This is the first crisis she is witnessing.

For me this crisis is not the first.
Growing up in Russia, first half of my life was a non-stop crisis.  Empty shelves, long ques and rationing - I saw it before. I spent many hours in those ques.

My parents were about 40 years old themselves during that time.
First there were empty shelves. Then there was the hyperinflation. I remember that I wanted to buy a pair of shoes and the price went from 5 to 25 rubles in about 2 weeks.

And there was always the background of never having enough of anything. 

This background feeling of crisis has never left. The memory of empty shelves makes me to have a backup of household items at all times. I didn't have to go and buy the toilet paper when everybody was freaking out about it. We already had enough in storage for several months.

I had a feeling that if I relax too much, something bad will happen. For years I didn't let myself to relax. Just recently I started to try to relax. Did I relax too much?

I started to think that maybe I don't need to have so much toilet paper at home. That if we want to buy more expensive brats with cheese instead of those without cheese, we can. Only two months after we started buying brats with cheese, the Coronavirus hit.

Last time I relaxed too much was when we went shopping on one Saturday in January.
It was a nice sunny Saturday and we were returning form shopping. I got come earrings, some blouses and pants for work.
My girl got boots with chunky 3 inch heels. She practiced walking in those shoes in the store. It was a funny show for the cashier and other shoppers. It took her a few minutes to finally not walk with flexed knees like some kind of a bird. I told her that is she can walk in those shoes, I will buy them. She was very motivated. Finally she waked like a model, quite tolerable. 

While watching this show I had a feeling that I am relaxing too much by buying her $35 shoes which she is not really going to wear much. She can't go to her clases in the elementary school in heels. 

I classified those shoes as a fun toy and thought it will be OK.  
Returning form shopping, while driving home in the car, I suddenly started to sing the funeral march.

I explained to my girl that it was a funeral procession music and it was always used in Russian funerals. I sung it loud to her. She said it sound like someone is crying really bad. Here is the link to this music on YouTube: Funeral march.

The funeral march stuck to me since then. I had it in my head every day. 

I told about it to one colleague at work. He jokingly said that maybe he will die. I said: "Probably not. If this music stuck to me for two weeks, that must be something more important. It is either my close relative or lots and lots of people."

Now I think that maybe our way of life is dying. My comfortable life with little economic worries is being killed by Coronavirus. The funeral march is accompanying it.

I survived those horrible times in Russia and the things have gotten better after. It probably will happen again.
Maybe when the funeral march in my head disappears, the things will start getting better.  

My girl called me at work today. I was not busy because all elective surgeries were cancelled due to the virus. 
She said that she figured out why we live. " We need to see the world. We should go to the ocean, we should go to Ireland and other places and see the world."

I agreed with her and said that as soon as we can, we will go and see the world.   

We planned a 2 weeks trip to Ireland in July.
It is not cancelled yet but it probably will be. 

If it took China from the beginning of January till end of March to slow down and they still have restrictions for all incoming air travelers, it will take us at least as much time. Probably longer since we are trying to flatten the curve. 
In USA it will probably extend to at least June. And if  we succeed in slowing it down then July and August will be included. 

Challenge "Cash flow" update October 2019

          

Today I hit $100,000 in cash flow from the investments for this year so far. Last year that was in September. The markets must be slower this year.

Below is my cash flow per month and the S&P 500 performance. 

my cash flow

                     

                     S&P500 returns in % to date (October non included yet)

Is it good for YOU or is it good for ME?

Yesterday evening I gave my 9 year old daughter some macaroni and cheese I got at the cafeteria. The server lady told me that macaroni and cheese were especially good that day because the cook had added real cheddar. I got a portion to take home to my girl.

I told her while giving the the food container: "They said that it is very good" and then left the kitchen for a minute or two.

When I came back, she said loudly: "If people say that something is good, that means it is good for them. It doesn't mean it is good for me. You can't trust anything what others say. You have to trust only yourself, your brain and your body. You have to decide yourself if something is good for you."

I asked if the macaroni and cheese tasted bad, she said: "No, it tastes good. I am not talking about macaroni and cheese, I am talking about life and everything else".

I told her that what she said is one of the smartest things I ever heard.

She managed to sum up my own philosophy about valuations of things.
The value of the same object (or even a subject) can be completely different depending on who gives the valuations.

I remember how someone gave me a collectible doll for Christmas. I didn't know what to do with that doll. I knew it was expensive but I didn't want to have it and I asked one of my friends if she would like to have that doll. She took it and couldn't believe that I would give away such a valuable doll (it cost about $100). It was valuable to her and it was worth nothing to me.

This applies to all areas of life: if your parents tell you that a law degree is good, is it good for you or for them? My father didn't want me to go to medical school. He said it is not good. It was not good for him. He never liked doctors and he left the hospital a couple of times against the advise. He wanted me to become an Russian-German interpreter. My grandmother wanted me to become an accountant. 

So would I tell my daughter she should become a doctor, that it is good?  
She has to decide for herself. 
Just think about your parents or grandparents plans for your life. What a terrible life it would be for you if you would live your life completely as they planned it for you? 

Everyone has his own destiny. As my girl said, you have to trust your own brain and your own body. She is right about the body. Many times a decision seems to be right with all the arguments  coming from your or other people's brains. But the body disagrees, the gut feeling tells you a different thing. What if it is not her destiny to become a doctor? And by pushing her to go into medicine will be doing the same thing as my grandmother did by pushing me to go into accounting.  

Many years ago my husband was leaving his old job. We met with one of his friends who was very sad about that. He said: "It would be better if you stay here". Then I asked: "Will it be better for you or for him?" The friend looked a bit embarrassed and said: "It will be better for me if he stays. But it will be better for him if he leaves". 

I hope my girl will always make her own decisions about what is good for her. 
Even if it is just about macaroni and cheese.

Life expectancy - Happy 45!!!

The officially oldest woman in history Jeanne Louise Calment (122 years and 164 days) was recently challenged. Now it is suspected that at some point her daughter took her identity. The probable reason - taxes. Taxes are a good reason. Who knows what really happened...

My sister wants to live till 120. I wanted somewhat more modest 102. 

But for a few months now I don't care anymore how long I will live. 

I am still curious, will I make it so long? But the longing to live up to 100 (or 102) in particular is gone.

I am can only guess why that happened. 
I am 45 now and for about 10 months I feel great, better then when I was 20. 

I am connecting it to what I eat. I will not say anything about my diet on this blog because anything about nutrition is very controversial. Everyone has an opinion and many people are aggressive about that.  I don't want to sink into that controversy/opinions swamp. It is nobody's business what I eat or don't eat. 

Last weekend my mother told me that she is worried about my diet because it was criticized on TV. I told her that I am OK with dying earlier as a trade for how I feel now. While telling her that I realized that I don't care anymore how long I will live. 

Usually a wish or a longing disappears after one of the two has happened: 
1. With your actions you made sure that it happens. Subconsciously you know it and your mind stops worrying. 
2. Or, with your actions you made sure that it will NOT happen. You know it subconsciously and you stop worrying. 

The indecisive, unsure state makes you worry.

With my actions (change in diet) I probably made sure that I  will live long or that I will live short. The change was big enough to make one of those two certain. But I don't know which way this certainty went.

I am OK with either outcome. The nagging feeling that I have to do something to extend my life disappeared. 

I will still keep updating the Challenge 102 out of curiosity. 
Who knows what else will change.

New year's resolutions - are you READY for change?

What's up with the New Year's resolutions? Or any kind of resolutions? Why do they so often fail?  

One of my friends recently made a resolution to lose weight. Part of his plan was to text me his weight every Monday, every week. He set a date for himself to start. That date has passed 4 weeks ago and he hasn't started yet. 

What is the problem with keeping resolutions? And why do we need to make such an official promise like a resolution tied to a specific date?  

The New Year's resolutions are just a variation of general resolutions. Technically they are not different to those that start on a Monday, or on a 1st of the Months or on the 1st of the year. All those resolutions are bound to a specific date to start. They are all scheduled. 

And the scheduling is a sign that most of them will fail.

Scheduling makes a promise official. It makes it ritualized.

Making it so official and big is similar to a marriage proposal from a desperate guy who doesn't even have a chance to date that particular girl. Inside, he knows  that his proposal will not work. But to give his proposal more weight he makes it more official, ritualized, and includes presence of public like going on a TV-show and proposes there. He thinks that making it "bigger and louder" should make the chance for success stronger. 


A resolution is very similar. If you need to ritualize or schedule, it is a sign of a desperate measure.  Sharing your plans with others to make them more official and helping to feel accountable is the same. Ritualizing, scheduling, and publicizing are outside measures which are recruited when the inner readiness is absent.  


Any resolution is just a promise. A promise to change something. Mostly those are behavioral changes. You want to change your actions.

Have you noticed that it is never a promise to change your  thinking? 

No one says: "Starting Monday I will start thinking that it is better to keep the house clean" or "Next year I will start thinking that it is better for me to exercise". Thinking happens unscheduled. Why is doing so different? 

Actually doing is not different. Your thoughts come when they are ready to come. In the same way, you start doing something only when you are really ready to do it.

Yes you can involve your will, push hard and make yourself do something. But it is very tiring and doesn't work for long. And it is usually a torture. 

Remember the saying about a horse: "You can take the horse to water but can't make it drink"? The horse has to be ready to drink, it has to be thirsty enough. Your planning can take you to water, but you have to be thirsty enough to drink. 

If you are not ready and you force yourself, you might "drink when you are not thirsty" and it will give you no pleasure.
You will feel a drag, your subconsciousness will signal that you are doing something unnecessary. Both, body and brain don't like to waist energy on anything that is unnecessary. The motivation will be low. Procrastination, laziness and excuses will come. All that because you were not ready.
But you will blame your weak will or laziness and lack of motivation.
When you start something you are ready for - you don't even think about motivation. You just start. Just like thinking. 

So if anything is guaranteed to fail if the person is not ready, why are so many trying?

Maybe they don't know that they have to be ready. 
Or maybe because of so much social noise they can't hear themselves. The social noise (friends, family, news, social media) constantly tells you how things are supposed to be and you are trying to comply. 
But do YOU really have to? Or do you have to do it NOW? Maybe you will be ready later.

An alcoholic knows the public opinion about his drinking but he will only stop when he is ready and not because someone tells him that he has to do it.


How to start learning to recognize if you are ready? 

1. Abstract yourself from others. When you feel that you have to do something, ask yourself: "Who says so?" 
For example if you feel that you have to keep in contact with a friend you don't like, ask: "Who says so? Why do I have to? Is it my duty or my chore to spent time on someone I don't like? Do I owe it to someone? Will my life be better without this chore?" 

2. Practice to recognize your own true wants quicker.      
True "wants", not "have to".

Years ago I was very pushy and aggressive toward my goals. I was setting goals and was working hard on them. But I noticed that I didn't enjoy the process. I was annoyed by any necessary adjustment, change or delay. That was no fun. Just hard work. Sometimes, after reaching a goal the hard way, I realized that I didn't really need it. After noticing it a few times I stopped pushing. 
I changed to: If I want it, I do it as soon I can. If something comes in between, I just let it. I went with the flow more and more. 

Instead trying to formulate goals and squeeze them into rigid frames, why not to just step back a bit? 
Ask yourself what do you really want? 
Notice, I am not asking what you want to change? I am asking: what you want to do? 

You can practice to recognize your true wants and to act shortly after. Once you learn to do what you really want, you will stop waisting your energy on things you don't want or don't need. This way will also help to eliminate things you are doing because others want you to do them. 

Of course the rules will be different at your work place. That is a special situation where you have to adjust to certain rules. 
Start with your private life, and maybe at some point you will be ready to change things at your job too. 

Start small but try to do it often. At some point in your day stop and ask yourself: what do I what to do right now? For example you are checking your phone. Put it down for a second, look around your room and ask yourself: What do I really want to do right now?" You might want to sort things on your shelf, or take a nap, or read a book. 
If you decide that you want to read a book, ask yourself: "What book?" It shouldn't be a book you still have to finish, or one someone said everyone has to read. It should be the one you want. Just your own interest is reason enough.  
Start with these small things. 
That way you will sensitize yourself to recognize quickly what you want.

When you identify what you want to do, act quickly and do it.  Otherwise the effect will be lost. 
You will notice the difference in feeling - how it feels when you are doing something you really want. 
Don't do it like this:
"I want to go to France, again..."
"Have you been there before?"
"No, but I already wanted before." 


The real changes don't happen according to a schedule. 
It happens happens when you are ready for it. Ready in your mind, thirsty enough for it. If you start a change when you are ready, it will be a lasting one and the one you will enjoy. 


My rules for resolutions: 
Don't make any resolutions.
Recognize what you WANT. Then DO what you WANT. 
Don't schedule your joy.

When is the right time to retire for me?

My friend has retired about 3 months ago. She says it was the best thing she has ever done and that everyone should retire as early as they can. 

Early retirement question is not standing in front of me right now. I still didn't save enough for that. I will need at least 10 more years. 

Also, I don't feel that I am done yet. I feel that I am not done with going to work. 

If I would leave now, it feels like I am leaving a party which is not finished. Some say, you should leave a party when it is not over yet. 

It may be true for some people, but not for me. I don't like to leave parties early. I usually stay till the end. 

By this funny criterion, I might not retire early because I would want to stay till the end. 

What defines my "end of the party for the work situation"? 

It is not the end of the company I work for. 

It is not the end of the world either. 

I like people I am working with. But when we get new people I like them too. If one of my colleagues retires, it is not the "end" for me. 

It must be something else. 

I like my office, but I will be OK if I will have to change to another one. My office is not the "end" either. 

I like to dress up a little bit and wear my heels (3-3.5 inch). Like these: 

I can wear them because I am sitting at the microscope the entire day. I don't have to walk much. On weekends or days I am off, I mostly don't wear heels, especially when I go to Walmart or to Lowes. 

I have great fun wearing my work cloths. I have a lot of cloths. If I would have to wear scrubs, it would make me sad, very sad. 

Not sad because my cloths would be waisted. Sad because I like the process itself. I like the look of my cloths and I like the sound of my heels when I am walking. I will be missing that at lot. 

Writing this I realize that the business with the cloths and heels might sound very superficial, but that's how it is. Fortunately this is an anonymous blog and I don't have to pretend. 

Also , as Oscar Wilde said once: "The only excuse to be absolutely overdressed is being absolutely over-educated". My Bachelor in design, MS in language and literature, MD and PhD have enough weight to counterbalance my superficial fun with cloths and heels.  

My retired friend said that since she has retired, she spends more money. She has more time to travel and to do other activities. 

There are many articles out there which say that working only one or two additional years will substantially increase your financial cushion. You can work just a couple more years if you think you have enough but are still worried. 

Adjusting it to my superficial situation, after I have enough money saved I will have to evaluate if I already had enough fun wearing my heels or if I continue it for a few additional years. 

Fading of the fun of wearing heels might be a sign for me that my retirement is approaching. I will definitely have to retire when my looks change from this to that:

I know, it doesn't sound like a serious evaluation. This entire post is not very serious. 

I talked to my sister who is a radiologist and she told me that she wants to live to 120. My cut off is much less ambitious with only 102. She does not plan to retire early and she also likes to dress nice. 

How to keep deadlines?

M. asks: How to keep deadlines? I missed on my savings plan due to market going down.

Problem Nr.1: Can't plan on markets short term. Market is it's own beast and does what it wants. See my post here. 

Problem Nr.2: The planning might be too tight. 

While planning, many people put themselves into a very tight time frame without leaving any room for unexpected and find themselves missing deadlines. 

Why does it happen? Why do people squeeze themselves into such tight deadlines? It appears to be a certain recipe for a failure... 
The reason may be the misinterpreting of the consequences.

I will explain it on an example. 

My friend had an appointment in a neighbour city which was 30 min away. We were in a car driving on the interstate. Without any bad traffic we still had at least 20 minutes to drive. But we were already late. He called the person he had the appointment with and said that he will be there in 10 minutes. 

I asked him why did he do that? Saying 10 minutes when we have at least 20 more. He said he didn't want the client to know that he will be that late. He planned to call the client again in another 10 minutes and tell him that it will be 10 more minutes.  And then hope that he will not have to call him again if instead of 10 minutes it will be longer. 

I told him that this would irritate me and that such a person would not appear reliable to me. 

He asked me what would I do not to anger the client. I said that I would apologize first. If I know that I will be 20 minutes late, I will tell that I will be 25-30 minutes late. That is to give me some room for the unexpected and not to have call several times. 
Every time you call and add more time to your delay is a separate disappointment. If you call 2 times, the client will be disappointed twice, if you have to all three times, he will be disappointed three times. And when you finally appear late, he will be disappointed that you are late. 
That is not a good start for a meeting. 

You give the waiting person small bits of time each of 10 minutes long and he can't do anything useful in that time. 
I would give him one bigger chunk of time of 25-30 minutes and that is enough to be used for something productive. I would prefer that for myself. 

In addition, if you manage to come a bit earlier, your customer will not feel that you are that late because you re-negotiated the time. After the changed time and changed  expectations, you are still late but that is a much better start for a meeting. Do you feel the difference?

My friend's perceived consequences were that he will disappoint the client less if he will falsely keep his hopes up.
The real consequences are: the client feels like waisting time and you appear as unreliable person.


My strategy

When making a budget for something (expenses or budgeting time required for a task) I over plan. 
If I estimate that I need 3 weeks for finishing up a project, I will say that I will need 4 weeks. I don't try to impress anyone with how fast I could work. The emphasis is on "could". Yes, I could, but that will be high intensity working and there will be no room for anything unexpected that can produce a serious distraction. 
At the end I will be exhausted with work and worries that I might not be on time (which equals to bad time management and unreliability). On the other side, if I have more time for working with good time margin for unexpected interruptions, additional checks or improvements, if I am done before the dead line that will be just a bonus for the receiving site in additional impression of competence, good time management and reliability. 

If I am doing something for myself, I plan the same way. If I want to be done with cooking in 20 minutes, I tell my husband 30 minutes. There can be many distractions at home: a cat asking for ham or ice cream or a child with something unexpected, or a phone call. If there are no interruptions, I can always use some free time for myself. 

My husband lives on a different time scale. He always underestimates the necessary time. I figured out the correction factor and now it works just fine. If he says that he needs 30 minutes, it means in reality 90 minutes. If he says 1 hour, that is usually 3 hours. That way I know, that If he plans us to leave the house in 15 minutes, I have time (about 45 minutes) to cook dinner or bake a pie.

What are the reasons for such behaviour pattern? 
I think that again it is the misunderstanding of the consequences, just like in the first example. 

By giving shorter times the person tries to present the situation better than it is. Then inevitably the truth hits strong and produces disappointment. 
Those people tend to hide the unpleasant facts even from themselves but with the effect of feeling more like a failure at the end. They see others being disappointed by them or they are disappointed by themselves. 

In case they don't feel like a failure and actually just don't care if they are late (like some who are habitually late), those people are just not worried about the consequences. 

Those people will not be late to the airport but they will be late to a restaurant dinner with friends. They estimate the consequences of being late for dinner as not important. 

And that just how their friends may feel: not important. In this case the reason is the same: the misinterpreting of the consequences. 
Is it really your intent to show your friend that they are not important enough for you to at least try to be on time? People like to feel important. Why not to give them that, especially if it is so easy. People always remember how you make them feel. 

Should I be afraid of recessions?

Bear and bull markets are coming and going. 
Everyone feels great during a bull market. Just until it is it's last day. And then the mood changes. 

We save our hard earned money and put most of it into some financial vehicles, dependant on each person risk tolerance and knowledge level. 
As soon as you touch an "investment" the risk level and uncertainty increase substantially compared to cash. 

With cash there is mostly only one uncertainty - with which inflation rate it will devalue over time. 

With investments uncertainties are many of all different kinds. 
The values will fluctuate all the time. 
During the market dips or bear markets your account may show a fat red minus and that will make you nauseated. 
But overall with all the fluctuations the market will move higher thanks to the drift which is probably related to inflation. 
The biggest risk is that a particular stock or fund may lose value and never recover.  And that can happen during a bear marked or a bull market.  

After watching the markets for awhile and seeing the constant fluctuations I realize that there will always be uncertainty. 
Uncertainty brings anxiety and that is not a pleasant feeling. I want to minimize it. 
By this  logic, if I minimize uncertainty, I will minimize anxiety. 

When you minimize uncertainty it can go both ways: you will find out something positive or something negative. But even if you find out something negative, the anxiety should decrease due to decreased uncertainty. 

How to decrease the uncertainty in this case? 
That could work trough information gathering. 

The main question I need to answer is: What will happen to the markets? 

That is actually a substitute question for this one: If I plan to retire and my retirement financing depends on the savings I invest in the market, I am basically asking if there will be enough money for me to finance my retirement. 

Here I already have done some information gathering: I calculated and estimated that with 3% of inflation I will need $3,000,000 at the retirement start point to be fine if I live to 100 or a bit longer. 
I probably will not use all of that money because the chances are high that I will die before I hit 100. If I have unused money left will not matter much. It is more important to have enough until that final point in life because I don't want to be under pressure to die in time to make sure the money doesn't run out. 

I am making some progress getting to this number and I still have 20 years to go till I am 65. If I keep the same savings rate I should definitely reach this number. 

But since I am not there yet, every time the market has a hiccup, it makes me feel uneasy. 
And I don't like this feeling.

Most things in nature have cycles or at lest some king of a wave pattern. For example the blood pressure has a wave pattern. Many hormones have their circadian rhythms. Oceans have their rhythmic ebbs and flows. 
Wind also don't blow with the same speed at all times. 

It feels like markets are a part of nature even they are man-made. They have their natural fluctuations. 

After comparing the markets to the things of nature it just makes no sense to complain about market's fluctuations. It is like complaining about the weather. The complaints will not change it. 

Like with the weather, complaining is useless. All you can do is adjust and use it as well as you can. 

If you don't like the cold, move to a warmer place. If it rains too often, have an umbrella ready. 

The same with the markets: If individual stocks are to much work and too much risk for you, move to indexes. If that is still too much, go into treasury bonds. 
If you know that there will be periods of downturns, have your umbrella ready in form of a strategy.  

You can look at indicators such as unemployment rates, consumer confidence or the yield curve. 
By those indicators we are much closer to a recession than 2-3 years ago. 

At some point the downturn is inevitable. We will have just to live with that. But how much can it go down and how much can it impact me on my way to my target of $3,000,000. 
Would it make sense to look at what happened historically? 

Below is the image of the S&P500 for a very long period. 

The large dip on the left side is the Great Depression of 1928. That is the most significant downturn. It took the market up to 1950ies to get back to the same heights. 
If you are still working and keep adding to the investments it will probably take you only half that time. So instead of 20 years you will get back in 10. The remaining market dips are not a s bad. 

I will assume the worst and look at two scenarios: one is when I am still working and can add to savings and the second where I can't add to savings anymore (due to job loss or retirement). 

Sourse: macrotrends.net


The data in the graph is not inflation adjusted. I chose it because I already did inflation adjustments on my final necessary number to retire. 

1. I still need 20 years to retirement. If that large 1928-like deep happens now, I will need approximately 10 years to get back to the same numbers I have today and then have 10 more years of growth. My estimate show that in this case I will reach my numbers before retirement. 

2. The dip happens just after I retire and my numbers go down to half. I might have to go down on expenses for a while as circumstances dictate to let the funds recover. If the value will go down in half, I will have to cut the expenses in half. If I cut my expenses in half, my live will not be as comfortable and I might will live less long. Or not. I realize that it is "complaining on a high level", because I know a lot of people who already retired on much much less, and they live quite OK. But I like and always liked to have a very high safety margin. 

I realize that even taking in account the the largest known market downturn, I will very likely still come out OK, and I now have to take a step back from all the worries. 

The market can do what it wants with all its fluctuations. Just like the weather, I can't influence it. All I can do, is keep practicing to recognize the upcoming clouds and get my umbrella ready in time. I need to become more efficient with my umbrella.

Working on my umbrella means working my skills in stock selection and timing. There is definitely space for optimization.