Happy 46, belated

With all this COVID-19 if forgot to make my birthday post for my 46th birthday. It should have been in April.

Short summary: 

I definitely look older than 40. 

I have 6 gray hairs, in the temple areas, quite symmetrical. 

I feel great. 

I really don't like wearing a mask when  I have to talk a lot. 

I am too lazy to customize my mask. Maybe I am not lazy. When I was in the 4th grade I had to learn how to saw a mask (cold war times). And the mask I made had to pass a test. Of course my hand-made masks were great then but because it is connected to the obligatory school stuff, I don't want to do it again. I will have to express my individuality some other way. 

I still wear very high heels. 

My weight is stable for the last 2 years (after I figured out the secret).

My rosacea is gone (after I figured out another secret). 

I definitely don't have the "Superman syndrome" (when you try to help others even if they didn't ask). But I probably have the "Hercules syndrome" (when you try to solve unsolvable puzzles). Since I solved the weight and the rosacea puzzles, I am looking for a new one.  

Based on the Kurpatov's classification I am constructor-reflector which is a great combination. I am likely constructor predominant. It feels like constructor is taking over with age. 

Majority of the information we have around us is lies. Digging very deep is necessary to get to the truth. Only few of us dig. Probably mostly those who have "Hercules syndrome".  

     

Second wave - Corona diary 6

Most states have lifted the restrictions for about one month now. 

The news are flashing with "Record numbers of new COVID-19 cases". 

But what does the data say? How bad is this second wave? 

New cases in USA (from www.worldometers.com): 

 

Yes, the cases are rising. But what about deaths? 

They are not rising. 

Why are they not rising? 

The first peak of the positive case numbers was about the April 4. In that time the deaths were about half way to the first peak which was on April 18. That seems to give a lag time of 14 days. 

Now we have more testing capacities and that contributes to the positive case numbers. I don't know how to explain the low death numbers. So far the rising case numbers are not translating into rising deaths.

I hope it is obvious to the people in power that the economy cannot be shut down again. 

Traveling is difficult. Business bankruptcies are rising. 

The meat has almost doubled in price and it feels as a serious inflation.

The economic effects of the recent shut down are not fully there yet. There are talks about the "eviction moratorium" which should extend until March 2021. Good for people who can't pay rent but what about the landlords? 

Yes, the second wave of the economic stress is coming.  

  

    

Why are we so secretive about our finances?

M. asked me: Why do we have to be so secretive with our friends or family members about our finances?

When we are secretive, it means we feel like we have to hide something. But why would we hide? 

Generally, consciously or subconsciously, we sort all our personal contacts based on 2 criteria: usefulness and potential danger.

 
Here are the examples: 

How useful or dangerous someone is, is defined by the resources the target person possesses. 

Money is  one of the main resources. 
Let's take an interaction between two people. If the level of wealth is about the same, sharing the information about it doesn't appear very dangerous. 
If there is a dis-balance and one site has significantly less resources, the sharing may have consequences. 

It might be that the person with less resources decides to aggressively take some of yours. Or the person might put you into a situation that you will feel that you have to share those resources even if you natural inclination is not to share. It can be done trough manipulations like making you feel guilty. "Just because you have more you have to share, it doesn't matter that you worked harder to get there".    
A normal good friendship is based on balance. 

I am not talking about abnormal friendships which are based on secondary psychological gains. For example someone keeps a poor looser friend and constantly helps him financially. The secondary gain in this case is to feel as a "better person" and to pay off the moral guilt. The moral guilt is usually brought on by abusive family members, or religious businesses.

The normal friendship without secondary gains is balanced. The balance makes the relationship harmless because there is no danger of appearing significantly weaker or stronger. The possibility of being manipulated out of some of your resources is very small. 

We choose our friends. 
We don't choose our family. The resources in the family will be unevenly distributed. If you feel the strong social pressure to keep in contact with your relatives, you will constantly feel some of the dis-balance. 

For example you have an abusive mother whose finances are not in a good shape. In the square above she falls into category of useless and dangerous but you can't stop the socially obligated contact. By hiding the information about your financial recourse you protect yourself. 

If you have a brother ho is not abusive but is not in a good financial situation and he is not asking you for money, his category might be useless and not dangerous. Here some people can feel guilty for their own success and feel that they have to even out the situation, even though a situation like that can never be evened out. 
Some would offer money, some would hide the information about the finances. Some may even pretend that they also have financial troubles, to make the financial situation less clear.  Lying about your finances is another way of protection. What protection works best is situational. Sometimes it is better just not to talk, sometimes it is better to lie. In a contact with an abusive/manipulative person lying is completely justified. As soon as the other site starts using unfair methods, you are released from the rule of playing fair.  

I summary, it will always be difficult to have a relaxed connection if there is a dis-balance of resources. 

If you accept that it is normal to protect yourself and accept the fact that you don't have to play fair with manipulative people, it will make your life easier. 

Who wants to go back to school? Corona virus diary 5

My daughter said that she wants to go back to school. She cried when I told her yesterday that the schools will be closed till end of May. After that there is summer break. No school until August. She cried with bitter tears. 

How the graphs of daily deaths look like now? 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

In the beginning the incline was about 45 degrees. It definitely stopped for Italy. For the USA it might be coming now. 

Are the graphs of daily deaths saying anything? Corona diary 4

I am watching the statistics for the Corona cases. 
Mainly I am watching the reports of the daily deaths. The daily new infections are interesting too, but the testing is not the same from country to country. 

I trust the death reports more and think that they will be more useful in comparisons. 

The graphs below are from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. 


The general feeling is that Italy and Spain are the front runners and that the USA and Germany are behind. I am looking at Germany because my sister lives there. 

On the two graphs below we can see that both countries started to slow down in the rates of daily new deaths. 

 Italy link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Spain link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

The plateau was approximately from March 28 till April 4.

If I shift the Italy versus USA, it looks like we are there where Italy was about March 31-April 1. 

USA link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This way it looks like the shift is about 1 week. If this is correct, we should see the slow down in daily new deaths soon. 

"Cash flow challenge" summary 2019

The total cash flow from investments in 2019 was $143,241. 

That is still Level 2 of my "Cash flow challenge" - "Sailing".

It was about the same as last year (for 2018 the total was approximately $146,000). I didn't have significant incerases in the capital involved and kept more in cash.

Below is my cash flow per month and the S&P 500 performance for 2019. 

my cash flow

                                                                      S&P500 returns in %

My minimum per month was above $2,000 and the maximum this year was about $22,000 (compared to the last year minimum of above $2,000 and maximum of about $19,000). 

It is April 2020 and the Coronavirus flying around in full speed. The numbers for 2020 will not be good. 

Overreaction? Corona virus diary 3

This morning I noticed that the Funeral march music has dissapeard from my head. I tried to sing it on purpouse but it didn't stick. It was there from the middle of January till last week of March - for about 2.5 months. 
Now it seems to be gone. I hope it is good sign.


I will take it with caution and watch what will happen. Usually there is a lag time of 2-4 weeks. Maybe most of us will be back to work in 2-4 weeks.  Even if it doesn't look like it right now. 

I feel the similarity between this Corona virus pandemic and that one time few years ago when the biggest snow storm of the century was predicetd for Atlanta region. The airport was closed based on predictions. But no snow came. 
Definitely there are people dying due to the new virus but to put the entire planet into an economic coma may be a very big overreaction. 

The more we will be getting out of this pandemic, the more voices will be sounding calling is overreaction. 

Sometime later another virus will come. I hope that people in change will not forget the economic results of the current overreaction and will concider the measures more carefully. 


   

Why Corona virus makes people poor? Corona virus diary 2

After I returned form work yersterday my girl asked me: "Why does virus make people poor?"

I don't know if my constant background fear of being poor  tranfered to her. Two weeks ago when the China's deaths were rapidly increaseing, I said that we will not buy any toys untill the virus has passed. For the time being we will only buy food and the most nesessary things. I was surprized how easy she aggreed to that. 

I am watching how gradually the news are changing from "No we wan't have a ressesion" to "This will be a very deep ressession" to "This will be a depression". 

Some are still hoping for a V-shaped marked recovery. But it probably wil be mor of an L-shape.

The closings of restaurants started the snow ball. Almost everything is closing. Even the health care businesses are not safe. With the canceling of the elective surgeries, the medical practices lost a lot of business. They are also laying off people. 
This can't just suddenly all come back. There will not be a sudden pick up of all consumer spending to the previous levels. Most people will be shocked and scared for a long time and the spending will decrease for a while. 

After I explained those reasons to my girl, she thought a bit and said: "There is a boy in school, Vinnie, he winks at me. What does it mean?" I can only hope that we will swich back as fast as she can. 
I said: "The boy likes you but doesn't not know what to say". Then she said: "Akul never winks at me, does it mean he does not like me? But we play together a lot." I said: "Akul likes you but he knows what so say".  
Soon there will be more questions of this sort coming. I feel like starting a new Q&A section, something like "What girls want to know".  

Why do we live? Corona virus diary 1

Yesterday my 9 years old girl asked me: "Why do we live?" I said that I don't know and that if she finds it out, she should let me know.

She is worried about the Coronavirus even though I told her that children are not at risk. She is worried that her mom and dad can die. And because the stores don't have eggs.

Her worry is real because she sees things happening which never happened before. The schools are closed. The store shelves are empty. The numbers of dead people are increasing rapidly on worldometer.

We went  to Walmart  to get eggs and there were no eggs. With surprise and fear in her eyes she asked what is she going to eat? How can we survive without eggs?
She likes eggs a lot and eats them every day.  Recently she learned to make scrambled eggs all by herself and she is very proud.

This is the first crisis she is witnessing.

For me this crisis is not the first.
Growing up in Russia, first half of my life was a non-stop crisis.  Empty shelves, long ques and rationing - I saw it before. I spent many hours in those ques.

My parents were about 40 years old themselves during that time.
First there were empty shelves. Then there was the hyperinflation. I remember that I wanted to buy a pair of shoes and the price went from 5 to 25 rubles in about 2 weeks.

And there was always the background of never having enough of anything. 

This background feeling of crisis has never left. The memory of empty shelves makes me to have a backup of household items at all times. I didn't have to go and buy the toilet paper when everybody was freaking out about it. We already had enough in storage for several months.

I had a feeling that if I relax too much, something bad will happen. For years I didn't let myself to relax. Just recently I started to try to relax. Did I relax too much?

I started to think that maybe I don't need to have so much toilet paper at home. That if we want to buy more expensive brats with cheese instead of those without cheese, we can. Only two months after we started buying brats with cheese, the Coronavirus hit.

Last time I relaxed too much was when we went shopping on one Saturday in January.
It was a nice sunny Saturday and we were returning form shopping. I got come earrings, some blouses and pants for work.
My girl got boots with chunky 3 inch heels. She practiced walking in those shoes in the store. It was a funny show for the cashier and other shoppers. It took her a few minutes to finally not walk with flexed knees like some kind of a bird. I told her that is she can walk in those shoes, I will buy them. She was very motivated. Finally she waked like a model, quite tolerable. 

While watching this show I had a feeling that I am relaxing too much by buying her $35 shoes which she is not really going to wear much. She can't go to her clases in the elementary school in heels. 

I classified those shoes as a fun toy and thought it will be OK.  
Returning form shopping, while driving home in the car, I suddenly started to sing the funeral march.

I explained to my girl that it was a funeral procession music and it was always used in Russian funerals. I sung it loud to her. She said it sound like someone is crying really bad. Here is the link to this music on YouTube: Funeral march.

The funeral march stuck to me since then. I had it in my head every day. 

I told about it to one colleague at work. He jokingly said that maybe he will die. I said: "Probably not. If this music stuck to me for two weeks, that must be something more important. It is either my close relative or lots and lots of people."

Now I think that maybe our way of life is dying. My comfortable life with little economic worries is being killed by Coronavirus. The funeral march is accompanying it.

I survived those horrible times in Russia and the things have gotten better after. It probably will happen again.
Maybe when the funeral march in my head disappears, the things will start getting better.  

My girl called me at work today. I was not busy because all elective surgeries were cancelled due to the virus. 
She said that she figured out why we live. " We need to see the world. We should go to the ocean, we should go to Ireland and other places and see the world."

I agreed with her and said that as soon as we can, we will go and see the world.   

We planned a 2 weeks trip to Ireland in July.
It is not cancelled yet but it probably will be. 

If it took China from the beginning of January till end of March to slow down and they still have restrictions for all incoming air travelers, it will take us at least as much time. Probably longer since we are trying to flatten the curve. 
In USA it will probably extend to at least June. And if  we succeed in slowing it down then July and August will be included.