Moneyanatomy - personal finance blog

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Recalculation of "How much do I need to stop worrying" - now it looks much better and simpler.

I am not a political person but this week I attended a meeting with Congressman Phil Roe as a key note speaker. One of the things he talked about was the Social Security. 

In his opinion social security will persist but it will change. One of the things what may change is that the retirement age will be pushed further toward 70. The other is that people may be vetted in based on their available retirement resources.  
The last one, the vetting (or means testing), worries me because that will mean all the paid in money will be gone, because very likely I will not qualify if they start vetting in. 



As you see in my other post I calculated how long the retirement savings will last, the second table was calculated without social security benefits. I calculated that with very conservative 1% yearly return rate.  
It looks like it might be enough until I am 97 years old. But as you know I have a "Challenge102" going to beat my granduncle who is 102 years old. In that case the money can become tight and I don't like it. 

Somewhere I read about the risk to die without using up all your money or "outliving your money" but it doesn't concern me at all. I am generous and my daughter can have whatever is left. 

Back to the retirement calculations. There is a way to improve this situation and this is to reach a higher rate of return, 5% will probably do it. 

Now I am changing the previously very conservative return rate of 1% to more realistic return rate of 5% per year and recalculating everything.  

I used bankrate retirement income calculator with settings of 3% inflation and 5% yearly returns. Per that calculator the $3,000,000 will be enough. After 50 years the ending amount is still approximately $3,000,000 and I can withdraw about $13,000 per month before taxes for 50 years without changing the capital (it is because they use withdrawal rate of 4% which is less them my set return rate of 5%). 

With this monthly withdrawal amount the ending balance will still be $3,000,000. If I want to withdraw more, I will have to use some of the capital but it still should be enough. 

Now, after this recalculation it looks like I only need 2 things:
1. I need to reach $3,000,000 in savings.
2. I need to reach stable 5% yearly return after I reach $3,000,000 in my savings. 

This simplification is motivating.
Here are my new 2 goals which I will track and update:
1. Track the savings and see when I will reach this magic number of $3,000,000. 
2. Learn how to reach stable 5% return per year. 
(3). Beat my granduncle so all my savings efforts make sense. 

When I reach the goals I will celebrate big! 




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